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The New Terrorism
21 January 2010Eitan Haber
THE NEW TERRORISM
SITTING ON HOT COALS
Allow me to present you with a very stupid question: what is more dangerous, a big bonfire or the smoldering coals in a pile after the fire is out? The answer is of course the smoldering coals, because even the lightest wind can bring back the fire, when everyone thinks they have put it out and are no longer around.
In January 2010 the state of Israel is sitting on a pile of smoldering coals and enjoying every moment of warmth in the middle of the winter’s chill. For all appearances, our situation was never better: the stores are filled to bursting, in the cafes people argue over the few empty seats, salaries are rising, tensions in the area of security are decreasing. There is no Intifada plaguing the busses in Jerusalem, or Qassam rockets in the streets of Sderot. How wonderful!
One needs to follow vigorously what happens in the political and military arenas to understand and discern that under the surface Israel is facing a new form of terrorism. In this kind of terrorism no one fires guns, no one blows up busses or murders Jews, nonetheless it would appear that this terrorism is more dangerous to us than bus bombings: this is deligitimization terrorism – abolishment of the state of Israel from among the nations of the world.
The turning point, the water shed, is surely the Goldstone Report following Operation Cast Lead. Of course the campaign against Israel began before that, but the Report was the wind that caused the smoldering coals to burst into flame. It pays to observe the quiet, the lack of activity on the part of the Palestinian leadership in the last period: Abu Mazen and his comrades are hardly doing anything, and talking in public even less. For what? Practically the whole world is doing their job for them ? and the enlightened Palestinians this time are silent. From all points in the globe, and with exceptional force, the Palestinians are replacing the Israelis as the world’s “underdogs”. The world is inclined more and more to their needs, and sees Israel as the “Occupier” and the Palestinians as unfortunates, mainly oppressed people.
This trend did not begin with publication of the Goldstone Report, but it has worsened since then. Abu Mazen at this stage is looking for his place in the history books and it pleases him to take no step whatsoever: time is working in his favor and his dream of a bi-national state. Another year, another five years, and the numbers will say everything: on account of a Palestinian majority between the river and the sea a democratic country will emerge here, a new country, that the whole world will recognize. But patience. The Palestinians have waited 62 years for this moment. They will wait some more. Abu Mazen who wants to enter history as a big shot is operating now according to historical trends. Who will spoil this vision this dream for him?
Under present conditions there is only a slight chance that acts of terrorism will resume. And if there is a concern, it comes from fringe groups. Abu Mazen is truly opposed to terrorism, mainly because he believes he can achieve his objectives without bloodshed.
So what should we do? There is no counter?-intelligence service for preventing political attacks. There is also no intelligence service for understanding historical trends. If the analysis is correct that Abu Mazen and his comrades intend to bet the house and they envision one state, bi-national, so in the next period, at least, there will be nothing new in the political or military spheres. Abu Mazen needs peace and quiet in Judea and Samaria, so that into our slumbering skulls the message will enter that “our situation was never?” From his perspective we need to fall asleep on guard duty.
Our hope is that the Palestinians will make mistakes in the trend detailed here ? but what is said and what will we say? In the last period the Arabs in general and the Palestinians in particular have disappointed us. We can only blow on the smoldering coals and do everything to renew the talks and bring the Palestinians to the negotiating table. According to what has happened until now the Israeli representatives fell asleep on guard duty also at the table.
Translation by yonatan silverman
