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Israel Beat Hezbollah in 2006以色列擊敗真主黨在2006年
8 December 2006 2006年12月8日 -- - Add this post to del.icio.us 加上這郵政del.icio.usThe prevailing wisdom is that the war during the summer of 2006 came to a draw - some will claim that Hezbollah won and others that Israel won, but by and large, the consensus is that that nobody won.當時的觀念是，戰爭期間，在2006年夏季來到一個借鑒-有些人會聲稱真主黨韓元和其他以色列贏了，但總體來說，達成的共識是，沒有人獲勝。 After all, things are not much different than before - sure, a few buildings in Israel and Lebanon have been destroyed and a number of lives have been lost on both sides, but are things any different politically?畢竟，事情沒有多大的不同，比前-肯定，有幾個建築在以色列和黎巴嫩已經被毀，數人的生命已經失去了對雙方的，但目前這件事有任何不同的政治？ Well, according to那麼，根據 The First Post首郵政 , yes. ，是的。
Edward Luttwak’s view is that the situation in Israel today is similar to the one in Israel 30 years ago, after Egypt and Syria tried to destroy Israel - Israel was distraught about it’s inability to completely destroy the enemy and the enemy was ecstatic that it could inflict harm upon Israel - militarily and politically.愛德華路特維克的看法是，這種情況在以色列今天是一個類似在以色列， 30年前，經過埃及和敘利亞試圖破壞以色列-以色列是悲痛欲絕它無法完全消滅敵人，敵人是欣喜若狂它能夠造成的傷害後，以色列-軍事上和政治上。 But then, after the initial euphoria of the war settled, Egypt and Syria’s “presidents”/dictators (Anwar Sadat and Hafez Assad) realized that once Israel regrouped, Egypt and Syria came dangerously close to catastrophic defeat - closer than in 1967.但是，經過初期的勝利沖昏了頭腦的戰爭大局已定，埃及和敘利亞的"總統" /獨裁者（薩達特和阿薩德hafez ）意識到，一旦以色列重新集結，埃及和敘利亞來到危險接近災難性的失敗-更接近1 967年。 Thus, the two leaders realized that it was in their best interests to avoid another war with the mighty Israel.因此，兩國領導人實現了，這是他們的最佳利益，以避免另一場戰爭與浩蕩以色列。 Thus, Egypts’s peace treaty and Syria’s ceasefire on the Golan Heights.因此， egypts的和平條約和敘利亞的停火就戈蘭高地。
Luttwak sees Israel’s situation today in a similar lens - that although Hezbollah was able to inflict some damage on Israeli tanks and soldiers, it was the political pressure on Israel that made Israel stop it’s assault to destroy Hezbollah.路特維克認為以色列的情況，今天在一個類似的鏡頭-雖然真主黨能夠造成一些損失，對以色列的坦克和士兵，這是政治上對以色列施壓，使以色列停止它的攻擊，以摧毀真主黨。 If it wasn’t for the political pressure, Israel would have been able to wipe out Hezbollah.如果不是因為政治上的壓力，以色列可能已經能夠消滅真主黨。 Ultimately, Israel wanted to destroy “all Hezbollah positions one by one from the rear, all the way to the Israeli border.” But alas, that was not to happen, due to the “small” number of Israeli casualties.最終，以色列要毀滅"所有的真主黨陣地一個接一個，從後方，所有的路向以色列邊界" ，但可惜的是，這並非發生的，由於"小"一些以色列人員傷亡。 This small number of casualties was due to the success of the IDF - had Hezbollah rockets been concentrated, they would be able to assemble concentrated barrages of Katyushas into Israeli downs and incur much more damage.這個小的傷亡數字，是因為成功的國防軍-真主黨火箭集中，他們將可以裝配集中b arrages的卡秋莎火箭炮到以色列有跌，並招致更多的損失。
However, because of Israel’s actions, Hezbollah was forced to distribute their rockets to “village militias” which were “very good at hiding them from air attacks, and sheltering them from artillery and probing Israeli unmanned air vehicles, but quite incapable of launching them effectively, in waves against common targets.”然而，由於以色列的行動，真主黨被迫分發其火箭的"鄉村民兵" ，這是"非常善於隱藏他們從空中攻擊，並掩護他們從火砲和試探以色列無人機，但還有相當無力發射他們有效地，在波浪中對共同目標" 。
Thus, the Katyushas, while they unfortunately killed some innocent Israeli civilians, were ineffective.因此，卡秋莎火箭炮，而自己卻不幸地殺害無辜的以色列平民，是無效的。 Hezbollah and Nasrallah have implicitly accepted responsibility for having started the war, which is why they are now focusing on reconstruction.真主黨和納斯魯拉曾含蓄地接受了責任，為發動戰爭，這就是為什麼他們現在的工作重點是重建。 The theory now is that Lebanon expects Hezbollah’s help right now in rebuilding, not another war.這個理論現在是黎巴嫩真主黨期望的幫助，現在在重建，而不是另一場戰爭。 Perhaps Israel bought itself another 10 or 20 years?也許以色列購買了自己再過10年或20年？ Only time will tell.只有時間會告訴我們。
Tags:標籤： hassan nasrallah納斯魯拉 , ， hezbollah真主黨 , ， israeli security以色列安全 , ， israel defence forces以色列國防軍 , ， lebanon黎巴嫩 , ， southern lebanon黎巴嫩南部