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Israel Beat Hezbollah in 2006以色列击败真主党在2006年
8 December 2006 2006年12月8日 -- - Add this post to del.icio.us 加上这邮政del.icio.usThe prevailing wisdom is that the war during the summer of 2006 came to a draw - some will claim that Hezbollah won and others that Israel won, but by and large, the consensus is that that nobody won.当时的观念是，战争期间，在2006年夏季来到一个借鉴-有些人会声称真主党韩元和其他以色列赢了，但总体来说，达成的共识是，没有人获胜。 After all, things are not much different than before - sure, a few buildings in Israel and Lebanon have been destroyed and a number of lives have been lost on both sides, but are things any different politically?毕竟，事情没有多大的不同，比前-肯定，有几个建筑在以色列和黎巴嫩已经被毁，数人的生命已经失去了对双方的，但目前这件事有任何不同的政治？ Well, according to那么，根据 The First Post首邮政 , yes. ，是的。
Edward Luttwak’s view is that the situation in Israel today is similar to the one in Israel 30 years ago, after Egypt and Syria tried to destroy Israel - Israel was distraught about it’s inability to completely destroy the enemy and the enemy was ecstatic that it could inflict harm upon Israel - militarily and politically.爱德华路特维克的看法是，这种情况在以色列今天是一个类似在以色列， 30年前，经过埃及和叙利亚试图破坏以色列-以色列是悲痛欲绝它无法完全消灭敌人，敌人是欣喜若狂它能够造成的伤害后，以色列-军事上和政治上。 But then, after the initial euphoria of the war settled, Egypt and Syria’s “presidents”/dictators (Anwar Sadat and Hafez Assad) realized that once Israel regrouped, Egypt and Syria came dangerously close to catastrophic defeat - closer than in 1967.但是，经过初期的胜利冲昏了头脑的战争大局已定，埃及和叙利亚的"总统" /独裁者（萨达特和阿萨德hafez ）意识到，一旦以色列重新集结，埃及和叙利亚来到危险接近灾难性的失败-更接近1 967年。 Thus, the two leaders realized that it was in their best interests to avoid another war with the mighty Israel.因此，两国领导人实现了，这是他们的最佳利益，以避免另一场战争与浩荡以色列。 Thus, Egypts’s peace treaty and Syria’s ceasefire on the Golan Heights.因此， egypts的和平条约和叙利亚的停火就戈兰高地。
Luttwak sees Israel’s situation today in a similar lens - that although Hezbollah was able to inflict some damage on Israeli tanks and soldiers, it was the political pressure on Israel that made Israel stop it’s assault to destroy Hezbollah.路特维克认为以色列的情况，今天在一个类似的镜头-虽然真主党能够造成一些损失，对以色列的坦克和士兵，这是政治上对以色列施压，使以色列停止它的攻击，以摧毁真主党。 If it wasn’t for the political pressure, Israel would have been able to wipe out Hezbollah.如果不是因为政治上的压力，以色列可能已经能够消灭真主党。 Ultimately, Israel wanted to destroy “all Hezbollah positions one by one from the rear, all the way to the Israeli border.” But alas, that was not to happen, due to the “small” number of Israeli casualties.最终，以色列要毁灭"所有的真主党阵地一个接一个，从后方，所有的路向以色列边界" ，但可惜的是，这并非发生的，由于"小"一些以色列人员伤亡。 This small number of casualties was due to the success of the IDF - had Hezbollah rockets been concentrated, they would be able to assemble concentrated barrages of Katyushas into Israeli downs and incur much more damage.这个小的伤亡数字，是因为成功的国防军-真主党火箭集中，他们将可以装配集中b arrages的卡秋莎火箭炮到以色列有跌，并招致更多的损失。
However, because of Israel’s actions, Hezbollah was forced to distribute their rockets to “village militias” which were “very good at hiding them from air attacks, and sheltering them from artillery and probing Israeli unmanned air vehicles, but quite incapable of launching them effectively, in waves against common targets.”然而，由于以色列的行动，真主党被迫分发其火箭的"乡村民兵" ，这是"非常善于隐藏他们从空中攻击，并掩护他们从火炮和试探以色列无人机，但还有相当无力发射他们有效地，在波浪中对共同目标" 。
Thus, the Katyushas, while they unfortunately killed some innocent Israeli civilians, were ineffective.因此，卡秋莎火箭炮，而自己却不幸地杀害无辜的以色列平民，是无效的。 Hezbollah and Nasrallah have implicitly accepted responsibility for having started the war, which is why they are now focusing on reconstruction.真主党和纳斯鲁拉曾含蓄地接受了责任，为发动战争，这就是为什么他们现在的工作重点是重建。 The theory now is that Lebanon expects Hezbollah’s help right now in rebuilding, not another war.这个理论现在是黎巴嫩真主党期望的帮助，现在在重建，而不是另一场战争。 Perhaps Israel bought itself another 10 or 20 years?也许以色列购买了自己再过10年或20年？ Only time will tell.只有时间会告诉我们。
Tags:标签： hassan nasrallah纳斯鲁拉 , ， hezbollah真主党 , ， israeli security以色列安全 , ， israel defence forces以色列国防军 , ， lebanon黎巴嫩 , ， southern lebanon黎巴嫩南部