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2006년에 이스라엘 구타 Hezbollah
2006년 12월 8일 -- del.icio.us에 이 포스트를 추가하십시오통용 지혜는 2006의 여름 동안에 전쟁이 끌기에 왔다 이다 - 이겨진 Hezbollah와 이스라엘이 이긴 다른 사람이, 그러나 전반적으로, 일치 저 아무도는 이기지 않았다 다는 것을 어떤은 주장할 것이다. 어쨌든 것은 매우 다르지 않다 의 앞에 과 - 확실히, 이스라엘 과 레바논 에 있는 약간 건물은 파괴되고 다수 생활 분실되고, 그러나 다른 것은 무엇이든 양측 에 정치적으로 인가? 잘, 에 따르면 1종 우편, 그렇습니다.
Edward Luttwak’s view is that the situation in Israel today is similar to the one in Israel 30 years ago, after Egypt and Syria tried to destroy Israel - Israel was distraught about it’s inability to completely destroy the enemy and the enemy was ecstatic that it could inflict harm upon Israel - militarily and politically. But then, after the initial euphoria of the war settled, Egypt and Syria’s “presidents”/dictators (Anwar Sadat and Hafez Assad) realized that once Israel regrouped, Egypt and Syria came dangerously close to catastrophic defeat - closer than in 1967. Thus, the two leaders realized that it was in their best interests to avoid another war with the mighty Israel. Thus, Egypts’s peace treaty and Syria’s ceasefire on the Golan Heights.
Luttwak sees Israel’s situation today in a similar lens - that although Hezbollah was able to inflict some damage on Israeli tanks and soldiers, it was the political pressure on Israel that made Israel stop it’s assault to destroy Hezbollah. If it wasn’t for the political pressure, Israel would have been able to wipe out Hezbollah. Ultimately, Israel wanted to destroy “all Hezbollah positions one by one from the rear, all the way to the Israeli border.” But alas, that was not to happen, due to the “small” number of Israeli casualties. This small number of casualties was due to the success of the IDF - had Hezbollah rockets been concentrated, they would be able to assemble concentrated barrages of Katyushas into Israeli downs and incur much more damage.
However, because of Israel’s actions, Hezbollah was forced to distribute their rockets to “village militias” which were “very good at hiding them from air attacks, and sheltering them from artillery and probing Israeli unmanned air vehicles, but quite incapable of launching them effectively, in waves against common targets.”
Thus, the Katyushas, while they unfortunately killed some innocent Israeli civilians, were ineffective. Hezbollah and Nasrallah have implicitly accepted responsibility for having started the war, which is why they are now focusing on reconstruction. The theory now is that Lebanon expects Hezbollah’s help right now in rebuilding, not another war. Perhaps Israel bought itself another 10 or 20 years? Only time will tell.
Tags:hassan nasrallah , hezbollah , israeli security , israel defence forces , lebanon , southern lebanon