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2006年にイスラエル共和国音Hezbollah
2006年12月8日 -- del.icio.usにこのポストを加えなさい勝つ知恵は2006の夏の間の戦争が引くことに来たことである-勝たれるHezbollahおよびイスラエル共和国が勝った他が、一般的に、一致そのだれも勝たなかったことであるがことを一部は主張する。 結局、事は大いに異なっていないの前にと-本当に、イスラエル共和国およびレバノンの少数の建物は破壊され、いくつかの生命失われたが、別の事は両側で行政上あるか。 それで、に従って 就床ラッパ、はい。
Edward Luttwak’s view is that the situation in Israel today is similar to the one in Israel 30 years ago, after Egypt and Syria tried to destroy Israel - Israel was distraught about it’s inability to completely destroy the enemy and the enemy was ecstatic that it could inflict harm upon Israel - militarily and politically. But then, after the initial euphoria of the war settled, Egypt and Syria’s “presidents”/dictators (Anwar Sadat and Hafez Assad) realized that once Israel regrouped, Egypt and Syria came dangerously close to catastrophic defeat - closer than in 1967. Thus, the two leaders realized that it was in their best interests to avoid another war with the mighty Israel. Thus, Egypts’s peace treaty and Syria’s ceasefire on the Golan Heights.
Luttwak sees Israel’s situation today in a similar lens - that although Hezbollah was able to inflict some damage on Israeli tanks and soldiers, it was the political pressure on Israel that made Israel stop it’s assault to destroy Hezbollah. If it wasn’t for the political pressure, Israel would have been able to wipe out Hezbollah. Ultimately, Israel wanted to destroy “all Hezbollah positions one by one from the rear, all the way to the Israeli border.” But alas, that was not to happen, due to the “small” number of Israeli casualties. This small number of casualties was due to the success of the IDF - had Hezbollah rockets been concentrated, they would be able to assemble concentrated barrages of Katyushas into Israeli downs and incur much more damage.
However, because of Israel’s actions, Hezbollah was forced to distribute their rockets to “village militias” which were “very good at hiding them from air attacks, and sheltering them from artillery and probing Israeli unmanned air vehicles, but quite incapable of launching them effectively, in waves against common targets.”
Thus, the Katyushas, while they unfortunately killed some innocent Israeli civilians, were ineffective. Hezbollah and Nasrallah have implicitly accepted responsibility for having started the war, which is why they are now focusing on reconstruction. The theory now is that Lebanon expects Hezbollah’s help right now in rebuilding, not another war. Perhaps Israel bought itself another 10 or 20 years? Only time will tell.
Tags:hassan nasrallah , hezbollah , israeli security , israel defence forces , lebanon , southern lebanon